THE SITUATION:  You all know about the negative economic growth number for the second quarter of 2022.  That's two negative quarters in a row, which is the classic definition of a recession.  The Biden administration, which has its own secret dictionary, says that isn't so.  

The debate is of no value.  The economy is one area where Americans make their own decisions based on what they see and feel.  Eyes and ears shape those decisions.  Brains are of secondary value.

Gasoline prices have gone down somewhat, but are still far too high.  It may well be that the president's political position is a bit better because of the slight drop, and maybe a touch of optimism has entered the fuel market, but, unless prices continue to fall, the drop will soon lose its glow.

Food prices are not dropping.  From what I can see, they're increasing in two ways.  First, actual prices on most items I buy are going up.  Just as important, our local supermarkets are putting far fewer items on sale.  Yes, careful shopping can absorb some of the price increases, but people get tired of "careful" shopping that brings home less food.  I've also noticed fewer people in the supermarkets on weekends.  That's just an observation.  I can't verify it with statistics.  But there is a sense of gloom.  People buy ice cream without smiles on their faces.  That's almost un-American.

The political situation:  This website has warned for months that Republicans were delusional if they thought the midterms would be a cakewalk.  Yes, some polls predict a Republican blowout, but recent surveys show an increasingly tight series of races.  Republicans, as usual, are cursed by some poor candidates in critical contests, and by a disturbing lack of urgency.   Too often they seem to be sitting on good poll numbers and waiting for the election-night parties.  They should, as the political saying goes, be running as if they're 20 points behind.  They must also have a positive platform.  So far they're sponsoring an entirely negative campaign, depending on dislike of the Biden administration to win for them.  That is not enough.  Voters want to know precisely what the GOP will do to solve the nation's growing problems.  Republicans need what former Speaker Newt Gingrich called a contract with America.  He used the device with spectacular success in the 1994 midterms.  I'm hoping the GOP will have a new contract right after Labor Day, spelling out what a Republican victory will mean for American families.

The huge complication:  Will Donald Trump announce before or after the election that he's running for president again?  This is real political drama because Trump is under active investigation by a House committee and, potentially, by the Department of Justice.  His story, if he runs, can literally suck all the air out of the political room.  An ex-president running again, seeking revenge...but who may wind up in prison.  What a movie!  Who plays Trump?

July 28, 2022